Thursday Evening Thoughts. 22/2/18

XJO popped up on the opening, then fell.  At 1.00 pm (Sydney time) it was well down.  The afternoon session pushed higher and the Index finished up +0.12%.  That’s hardly a stellar result but the intra-day action was positive.

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That needs to be put in the context of the wider scheme of things.

The XJO continues to struggle at overhead resistance.

XJO finished, more or less, at the 20-Day SMA.

Overhead is double resistance: horizontal and the 50-Day EMA.  That’s solid resistance.

The trend channel remains up.  That’s a positive.

A fall-back here would be very bearish.

Australian VIX has fallen every day for the past nine days.  That’s starting to stretch the friendship.  I think the next move in the VIX is up – and that’s a negative for the market.

Stay defensive.

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